Advanced Scouting Report: Gerrit Cole vs LA Dodgers

Preview of Gerrit Cole taking on the Dodgers in game 1 of the World Series. Cole hasn't been great this postseason and now he faces the best offense in baseball. Cole's given up 6 walks in 16.1 innings which could be a big problem against a Dodgers team that doesn't chase.

Cole has some elite metrics on his pitches and masterfully sequences his pitches. He's even broken out a power sinker in the postseason which is completely unfair to keep in your back pocket.

vs RHB

• 4-seam

  • Pitch for hitters to attack

  • Fills the zone, not much whiff, highest xwOBA of main pitches

  • Cole trusts it in most counts

  • Likes to pop 4-seam up and in when he’s ahead

• Slider

  • Lowest zone, highest swing, high chase

  • Can drop them in the zone early in counts

    • Non 2 strike zone -> 56.5

    • 2 strike zone -> 26.7

  • LAD hitters don’t chase much but Cole's a master at mixing his pitches to get chases

• Cutter

  • Highest whiff + z whiff, high chase

  • Throws it any count

  • Can drop it in the zone when he’s behind

• Knuckle Curve

  • Front hips them for strikes early in counts

  • Gets whiffs low and away late in counts

• Sinker (All 12 thrown this postseason)

  • Power sinker

  • Throws them in to get batters when they are focused away

Barrels

• 4-seam heart and middle up

• SL + CUT middle down

Whiffs 

• 4-seam + CUT up

• SL+CUT+CB low away

RHB Count Breakdown

What I'm watching for vs RHB:

• How aggressive will Cole be with his fastball?

  • Dodgers don't hit RHP 4-seamers well and have been whiffing a lot in the postseason but can do damage if he misses down

    • Regular season:

      • .321 xwOBA (23rd)

      • 22.6% whiff (19th)

    • Postseason

      • .409 xwOBA

      • 34% whiff

• How much chase will Cole get against the Slider and Cutter?

• Does he pitch backwards early in the game?

  • Sliders/Cutters early in counts to get Dodgers off his 4-seamer

    • See if they will chase early in counts

  • 4-seam can be his put out pitch

  
  

 vs LHB

• 4-Seam

  • Most effective pitch vs LHB

  • Lowest xwOBA, highest chase + zone + swing

  • Keeps it up and away

• Knuckle Curve

  • Early in counts: Back door, lands them in the zone when he wants

  • Later in counts: Below the zone looking for chase

• Cutter

  • Throws them up in the zone, will come inside when he’s behind in the count

• Slider

  • Early in counts: backdoor

  • 2 strikes: down and in looking for chase

• Changeup

  • In zone only 28.6%

  • Looking for chases and whiffs

  • 40 of 63 CH used in 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, and 1-1 counts

  • Breaks them out when he thinks hitters are sitting fastball

• Sinker (8 of 10 thrown in postseason)

  • Has used them 1st pitch or when he’s behind in the count

Barrels

• 4-seam belt high and below

• CB away

• SL middle down

Whiffs

• 4-seam up (mostly up + away)

• CB + SL down

LHB Count Breakdown

What I'm watching for vs LHB:

• Cole's 4-seam will definitely play vs lefties

  • He'll get plenty of whiffs up and away, can't miss below the belt

• How often will the Dodgers chase?

  • They've done a great job this postseason of laying off breaking balls out of the zone

• How many Changeups will Cole throw?

  • Threw a season high 8 on August 22nd

  • Dodgers LHB will be geared up for fastballs and will be ready to lay off knuckle curves

  • Dodgers 5th highest whiff% (34%) in regular season vs RHP CH

    • 41.7% whiff in postseason

Preview of 5 Hottest Hitters for Dodgers (data vs Cole's pitch types and RHP only)

Shohei Ohtani (whiffs shown)

• Kills every pitch but especially SL and 4-seam

  • SL (.567 xwOBA)

  • 4-seam (.490 xwOBA)

• Slider can get whiff and chase

  • 47% whiff, 32% chase

• 4-seam can get whiffs up (27% whiff)

  • I covered on my LinkedIn how Ohtani struggles against elite fastballs like Cole's

• The 4-seam will be his main pitch vs Ohtani but I would be shocked if Cole doesn't break out the Changeup.

  • CH early in the count -> 4-seams and CBs to put him away.

  • Cole has to be careful low and away with his backdoor breaking balls

    • Ohtani can do damage even out there

  
  

Mookie Betts (whiffs shown)

• Crushes fastballs and doesn't whiff

  • 4-seam (.391 xwOBA)

  • Cutter (.397 xwOBA)

• 1 for 17 vs RHP CBs

• Whiffs are all away

  • fastballs up and away

  • CUT + SL + CBs low and away

• Barrels heart of the plate, SLs down and in

• Cole will keep the ball away to Mookie, no reason to attack him inside.

Max Muncy (whiffs shown)

• High whiff vs all pitches

• Will chase CH + CB + SL

• Crushes SL and 4-seam

  • SL (.468 xwOBA)

  • 4-seam (.376 xwOBA)

• Barrels middle, down and away

  • 4-seam in the heart

  • SL + CH down and away

• Cole can rely on his 4-seamer up and away and SL down to get whiffs. Muncy is another lefty that I expect Cole to use his changeup against.

Tommy Edman (postseason balls in play shown)

• Aggressive but tough to strikeout because of his bat to ball skills

• Doesn't whiff in zone

• Struggles against 4-seamers but can get hits against breaking balls

  • .190 avg vs 4-seam

  • .400 avg vs CBs

  • .278 avg vs SL

• Been red hot in the postseason without hitting the ball hard consistently

• I expect Cole to pepper Edman with 4-seamers like every other pitcher has this postseason

Kike Hernandez (whiffs shown)

• Whiffs a ton

  • CUT (36.8%)

  • CB (28%)

  • SL (27.7%)

• Struggles vs Cole's pitches

  • SL highest xwOBA (.321)

  • 4-seam xwOBA (.243)

• Barrels SL + CB more than fastballs

  • mostly middle away

• Kike will play right into Cole's game-plan. He'll swing and miss at fastballs high and chase cutters and breaking balls down and away.

The cat and mouse of this match up is going to be incredibly fun to watch. I'll be counting whiffs vs Cole's 4-seam and how much the Dodgers chase breaking balls.

Data from Baseball Savant. Graphics made on my shiny app (https://dominick-ricotta-baseball.shinyapps.io/RicottaBaseball/)