Advanced Scouting Report: Luis Gil vs Minnesota Twins

Luis Gil has been incredible for the Yankees to start 2024 after missing all of 2023 with an injury. Gil ranks 6th in baseball for qualified pitchers with a 1.99 ERA and his 32% K% is good for 5th. He has 3 pitches that pop when looking at the data and all 3 of them have been super effective.

4-seam Fastball (56% usage)

Gil's 4-seam fastball has become one of the best fastballs in the game (6th highest run value with 10 RV). He gets elite velocity and spin and it averages 17 inches of induced vertical break. Above average iVB paired with his velocity, spin, and lower release point makes the fastball play even better than it might look.

Changeup (27% usage)

Gil throws his changeup super hard and gets a lot of horizontal break. His changeup is a unicorn pitch, there aren't any other changeups like it. He takes advantage of seam shifted wake and lets the ball and gravity do the work to create the movement. It's difficult for hitters to pick up out of Gil's hand.

Looking at the spin direction leaderboard for changeups, Gil is tied for 9th best deviation between spin-based and observed spin direction. Basically, the way the ball actually moves is different than it should move based on the spin. This is due to the seam orientation when he releases the ball.

Only one pitcher, Dominic Leone, in the top 20 of deviation between spin-based and observed movement average 90+ MPH on their changeup. Leone gets only 11 inches of horizontal break though, Gil gets 15.

Slider (17% usage)

Gil's slider is a lifty slider with tight break and high velocity. It can be cutter-ish at times but he definitely uses it more like a traditional slider. He throws it mostly against RHB (147 of 179 vs RHB) and keeps it low and away.

Release Point

As shown above in the release point graph, Gil releases his changeup from around 4 inches lower than he releases his fastball. The lower release helps Gil turn his wrist over more on the changeup and helps him create more spin and break. Sometimes hitters can pick up on those release point differences but they haven't been able to do that against Gil.

Right Handed Batters

Gil commands all his pitches well and you can clearly see where he wants to attack with each pitch. He generates a high amount of whiffs with all of his pitches against RHB.

RHB - counts

Gil is a fastball heavy pitcher but he has the ability to use it in different locations. When the batter is ahead, Gil will keep the fastball away. When Gil is ahead or theres 2 strikes he likes to throw it belt high, and up out of the zone, which is a great set up pitch for his changeup/slider.

Gil doesn't throw 1st pitch strikes at a high rate (57%, avg is 62%) so 1-0 counts are important for him. Interestingly enough, Gil is significantly better in 1-0 counts than he is in 0-1 counts:

0-1 counts: .436 wOBA, .641 xwOBA

1-0 counts: .225 wOBA, .370 xwOBA

Left Handed Batters

Gil throws his fastball 68% of the time against lefties and it's super effective. He'll throw it anywhere in the zone and in any count. His changeup command is exceptional against lefties, even if they make contact it's not a well hit ball.

LHB - counts

The thing that stands out when looking at this count breakdown is location. When Gil has the count advantage he'll usually stay away from the inside third of the zone with fastballs. When the batter has the advantage Gil likes to pound inside with fastballs.

Similar to RHB he struggles more when he starts the AB with a strike:

0-1 counts: .517 wOBA, .448 xwOBA

1-0 counts: .000 wOBA, .142 xwOBA

Twins Lineup (All data vs RHP)

Left Handed Batters Highlighted

Trevor Larnach (chart shows whiffs)

• Crushes 4-seamers and sliders

  • 4s - .473 wOBA | SL - .529 wOBA

• High whiff (38%) and chase (42%) vs changeup

Keys for Gil - Changeups, changeups, and more chanegups. He will get Larnach to whiff at the changeup when he spots it like he usually does.

When he does throw fastballs Gil has to make sure to keep them up in the zone. Larnach hits fastballs the hardest when the pitch is located in the middle third (horizontally) or lower.

Carlos Correa (chart shows whiffs)

• Very patient

• Great 4-seam hitter

  • .488 wOBA, 96MPH avg exit velo

• High whiff vs slider (37%)

• Hasn't seen many right on right CH

Keys for Gil - Get ahead with fastballs then get Correa to whiff at the slider. He struggles on pitches on the outer part of the plate.

Correa can hit fastballs hard but mostly when they're in the middle (horizontal) third. If Gil keeps them outside and high it will be tough for Correa to catch up.

Jose Miranda (chart shows barrels)

• Patient, doesn't whiff often

  • 4-seam (14%)

  • changeup (21%)

  • slider (24%)

• Crushes 4-seam (all 3 HR)

  • .524 wOBA

• Swings a lot at changeups

  • chase (50%), swing (67%)

Keys for Gil - Have to be careful with the fastball. Miranda does damage against belt high fastballs.

Gil can get him to be aggressive against the changeup, and I expect a heavy diet of changeups. This is one of the more difficult ABs in the lineup for Gil.

Max Kepler (chart shows barrels) My key match up of the game

• Great 4-seam hitter

  • .520 wOBA, .498 xwOBA

• Won't whiff (19%) or chase (19%) changeups

• High swing and miss vs slider

  • whiff (37%), chase (47%), swing (62%)

Keys for Gil - Gil will have to use his slider against Kepler. He doesn't use it often vs LHB but this is a match up that calls for it. Kepler has the ability to lay off the changeups and he hits fastballs incredibly well.

Kepler will whiff at fastballs but only when they are up and away, which plays into Gil's approach. Kepler can crush fastballs that are in the heart of the plate.

Royce Lewis

This is Lewis' first game back since opening day so theres no data to look at for 2024. Lewis is an exceptional fastball hitter (.526 wOBA in 2023) with 7 of his 14 HR coming against 4-seamers last year.

Lewis does most of his damage against pitches middle in. Gil will have to keep the fastball away or high. He can use the changeup, which Lewis whiffed at 47% in 2023, or the slider away effectively.

Alex Kirilloff (chart shows whiffs)

• Struggles against 4-seam, changeup and slider

  • 4-seam highest avg (.200) and wOBA (.313)

• Whiffs a ton at all pitches

  • 4-seam (28%)

  • changeup (35%)

  • slider (35%)

Keys for Gil - Keep the ball away from Kirilloff. Fastballs up and away + changeups down and away should be a easy recipe for success for Gil.

I mentioned before that Gil likes to attack the outside part of the plate when he has the count advantage so this is a great match up for him.

Byron Buxton (chart shows whiffs)

• Best numbers against sliders but struggles against all 3 pitches

  • vs SL: .357 avg, .407 wOBA

• High whiff against both slider and changeup

  • SL: whiff (46%) chase (41%)

  • CH: whiff (47%) chase (30%)

• Aggressive against fastballs

  • whiff (20%) chase (34%) swing (60%)

Keys for Gil - Buxton is a super aggressive hitter. Gil can get him to chase on any pitch.

I think Gil will mix it up against Buxton, throwing off-speeds early and then fastballs later in the count. Buxton will chase fastballs and even if he lays off one fastball, Gil can double up or go back to a slider or changeup.

Willi Castro (chart shows whiffs)

• Struggles against 4-seam, changeup and slider

  • CH highest avg (.208)

  • 4-seam highest wOBA (.372)

    • 2 HR vs 4-seam

• High whiff and chase vs changeup and slider

  • changeup: whiff (38%) chase (46%)

  • slider: whiff (43%) chase (35%)

Keys for Gil - Gil can attack Castro in a handful of ways, Castro plays right into Gil's hands.

He can get Castro to whiff on fastballs up and away and he can get whiffs and chases on his changeups down and away. He can use the slider against Castro too if he needs it in a big spot.

Christian Vazquez (chart shows whiffs)

• Historically a good 4-seam hitter but really struggling this year against every pitch.

  • vs 4-seam: .111 avg, .205 wOBA

    • whiff (32%) z-whiff (35%) chase (43%)

  • vs slider: .080 avg, .208 wOBA

    • whiff (38%) z-whiff (18%) chase (48%)

  • Faced only 3 changeups vs RHP

Keys for Gil - Attack Vazquez, be aggressive. Gil can get him to whiff at fastballs both in the zone and out.

The slider will be super effective, you can see on the chart how far out of the zone he'll go to chase. Vazquez hasn't seen many changeups but he chases a lot so it will be an effective pitch.

Summary

I picked this match up because the Twins are a great 4-seam fastball hitting team. They have the 2nd highest wOBA (.376) against right-handed 4-seamers. Gil uses his fastball over half the time so I wanted to dive into the cat and mouse of this match up.

Gil won't decrease his fastball usage too much but I think we see him using his changeup and slider more than he usually does. I think he'll throw more changeups and slider the 1st time through the order, then establish the fastball the 2nd time through. He'll be able to generate plenty of whiffs on his changeup and slider.

It's worth mentioning that Gil was traded to the Yankees from the Twins for Jake Cave in 2018. So maybe some extra motivation for Gil to go out and deal tonight. I expect another dominant performance from him.

All Data from Baseball Savant.