Advanced Scouting Report: Michael King vs Houston Astros

Michael King has been fantastic for San Diego in 2024. He's starting tonight in a big series opener against the Astros, an offense that's been red-hot since August.

King's a horizontal attack pitcher, he relies on horizontal movement to get whiffs and soft contact. He throws from a low arm slot which helps his movement and his high spin makes his pitches difficult to pick up.

vs. RHB

• Sinkers early in the count

  • 0-0 away

  • 0-1 inside

• 2 strike count, P ahead, and B ahead counts he mixes 4-seam, sweeper, sinker and changeup really well.

  • Sweeper will be crucial today against Houston

• CH - Best chase pitch

• Sweeper - Best whiff + lowest zone

• Keys vs Houston:

  • Dot sinkers inside

  • Keep 4-seamers up in the zone

  • Sweepers will get chased

vs LHB

• Mixes it up first pitch but then it's mostly changeups.

• CH is absolutely filthy vs LHB and King doesn't mess around

• Sweeper/Slider has the ability to front door them. He pairs them with his changeup in the same spot and sinkers up and in to keep hitters off balance.

• Keys vs Houston:

  • CHs will be his main pitch and the Astros lefties will swing at them

  • 4-seam up and away to change eye level

  • Sinkers inside to get them off the outside part of the plate

  • front door sweepers

Astros Lineup (All data vs RHP)

Jose Altuve (strikezone shows whiffs)

• Quick inside

• Sinkers - won't whiff inside but doesn't hit for power

• Sweepers - 50.7% chase

• Changeups - High chase, high swing

• Keys:

  • Sinkers in -> CH + SWP out of the zone

    
    

Yordan Alvarez (strikezone shows whiffs)

• whiff at 4-seam up and away + CH down and away

• CH whiff 24.6%

• Keys:

  • Yordan is dangerous in any quadrant

  • CHs need to be outside

  • 4-seamers need to be up and away

  • sinkers need to be way up and in

Kyle Tucker (Graphic shows barrels: Tucker & King)

• Patient

• 32% barrel vs sinker

• 30% whiff vs Chanegup

• Loves the ball middle-in

• Keys:

  • Sinkers need to be inside, can't miss over the plate

  • 4-seam needs to be up

  • CH will be a good whiff pitch ahead in the count

  • Sweeper will be a huge asset for King. The front door sweeper will be very effective against Tucker.

Yainer Diaz (strikezone shows whiffs)

• Aggressive

• High chase vs all pitches

• vs CH - 63% chase, 70% swing, 5% barrel

• Barrels mostly sinkers and sliders down in the zone

• Keys:

  • 4-seam up + sinkers in early in counts ->

  • Changeups down + sweepers off the plate away (39% chase)

Alex Bregman (strikezone shows barrels)

• Struggles with sweeper

  • .137 xwOBA

  • 22% whiff

• Changeup - 59% swing, 47% chase

• Barrels mistakes on 4-seam and SL in the middle of the plate + sinkers in

• Keys:

  • Sinkers early to steal strikes

    • He's selective and swings on sinkers middle/down towards the inside

  • Sweepers could generate soft contact

  • CH have to be down out of the zone and Bregman will chase

Jon Singleton (strikezone shows whiffs)

• Patient with fastballs

  • will take them away, low + away, and middle + down

• Changeup

  • 46% whiff

  • 40% zone whiff

  • 23% chase

• Sweepers - Singleton doesn't swing often (31%) can steal strikes away

• Keys:

  • front door sweeper

  • CH to get whiffs

  • Occasional 4-seamer to keep him off the CH

Jeremy Pena (strikezone shows whiffs)

• Struggles to make solid contact vs Sinker but he does have a .316 xwOBA

  • 3% barrel

  • -4 launch angle

• Sweepers

  • 34% whiff

  • 52% chase

• Barrels mostly middle away (belt high)

• Keys:

  • sinkers inside -> sweepers away

  • Pena will go way off the plate away

Jason Heyward (strikezone shows whiffs)

• Aggressive fastball hitter (50% swing vs fastballs)

• Struggles vs CH

  • .224 xwOBA

  • 39% whiff

  • 43% chase

• Sinkers

  • 7.4% barrel

  • -11 launch angle

• Keys:

  • 4-seamers up -> CH low and away

Mauricio Dubon (strikezone shows all swings)

• Aggressive hitter but doesn't whiff much, makes soft contact

• High chase%

• 4-seam highest zone whiff (21%)

• Keys:

  • Sinkers inside , he will chase

  • 4-seamers up for whiffs

  • Sweepers away

Houston hitters have holes that King can definitely exploit but if he makes a mistake the Astros are so good at taking advantage. The command of his fastballs will be something I'm watching closely. When he can spot the fastballs where he wants, it makes his 3 other pitches even better.

Tucker's at bat is the one I'll be watching the closest. How many fastballs will Tucker see? Will King open the at-bats with sweepers?

Data from Baseball Savant. Graphics created by me on: https://dominick-ricotta-baseball.shinyapps.io/RicottaBaseball/