Free Agent Report: Tanner Scott

The best lefty reliever available on the free agent market, Tanner Scott, is coming off his best full season. Scott split the season with Miami and San Diego, pitching to a 1.75 ERA.

He was Miami's closer totaling 18 saves in 20 opportunities, but when he went to San Diego he became one of the set up men. His ERA with San Diego was more than double it was with Miami but it could be due to some regression.

Marlins 1.18 ERA -- 3.25 FIP

Padres 2.73 ERA -- 2.33 FIP

Scott's approach is simple, tunnel his 4-seam and slider on the glove side of the plate. His pitch metrics jump off the page. High velocity, high spin, above average iVB on his 4-seam, and a slider that he can kill vert and get a lot of sweep on.

Scott is a supination biased pitcher so his 4-seam is cutter-ish, averaging 76% active spin, but he's still able to get good iVB. The supination helps Scott stay on the outside of the ball when throwing his slider which is why he gets so much sweep.

He throws from a 35 degree arm angle but he gets so far down into his legs it's a lower attack angle than it seems. Scott's a very unique pitcher because of his approach angle and shape of his fastball, only one pitcher is similar, but no lefties.

This shows 4-seam data for all pitchers that throw from a 35 degree arm angle. Scott has the lowest active spin, the highest velocity, the 3rd highest iVB, and the lowest vertical release. Cleavinger is the only lefty on the list but he gets way more backspin than Scott does. Thronton's 4-seamer is very similar but doesn't have the same velocity as Scott's.

2024 Recap

Scott didn't change much when he went to San Diego but there were a few things he worked on. One key thing was throwing more strikes with his fastball and trusting his slider to get chases.

Zone: 50.7% -> 57%

Swing: 49.2% -> 56%

1st Strike: 65.4% -> 71.4%

BB%: 14.8% -> 8%

• RHB

  • 4-seam saw a huge increase in zone (52% -> 66%) and small increase in whiff, and swing

    • kept it up and in more

  • Slider didn't generate the high chase that the Padres wanted and whiff and zone whiff decreased a lot

    • started to miss too far out of the zone

• LHB

  • 4-seam saw an increase in whiff, swing, chase, and zone

    • threw it lower in the zone

  • Slider increased zone and a huge increase in chase and swing

    • kept it closer to the zone and made it more enticing for hitters

      
      

Advanced Scouting Report

vs RHB

• 4-seam

  • gets most of his whiffs up and away but throws it inside to tunnel with his slider

  • hitters have to look to attack the fastball, especially when they have the count advantage

• Slider

  • 2-2 and 3-2 counts are the only heavy slider counts but he will throw it at any time

  • very effective when he starts it as a strike and ends it as a ball, but can lose command consistently

Righties have to be ready to turn on pitches since both the 4-seam and slider will break inside. Scott will leave fastballs in the middle of the plate and sliders above the knees which is where hitters can do damage. It's easier for righties to pick up Scott's release point.

vs LHB

• 4-seam

  • mostly stays away but can pop them inside sometimes

  • became significantly more effective when he started throwing it lower when he went to San Diego

• Slider

  • so tough for lefties to pick up

    • release starts almost behind LHB and ball breaks all the way to the outside part of the plate

  • no count where he throws majority sliders but depending on match up he'll throw all sliders to a hitter

    
    

Lefties have to look to go to the opposite field against Scott. Both his pitches move away and he consistently tries to attack the outside part of the plate.

Free Agency Outlook

Scott will be one of the most coveted relievers this off season. He's coming off his best full season and he's a legit weapon against Shohei Ohtani who is 1 for 13 (7 K) against Scott. It's one of the reasons the Padres wanted Scott at the deadline.

If he can continue to stay in the zone more with his fastball, keep the slider in good spots, and be more consistent with his command he's easily one of the best left handed relievers in baseball. The biggest question for Scott will be, does he want to close? He's certainly proven he can and I think he'll get closer money.

Valuation: 4 years $60 million

Data courtesy of Baseball Savant. All graphics created on my shiny app (https://dominick-ricotta-baseball.shinyapps.io/RicottaBaseball/)