Hurston Waldrep's Fastball: Will it Play?

Waldrep struggled in his debut on 6/9 @ Washington but it was easy to see why he reached MLB so quickly. His splitter falls off a table and is going to be super effective. He couldn't find his slider command in this game but if he can start to command it it's going to be a good pitch. Waldrep's 4-seam fastball could be a concern though.

His fastball averages 15.1 iVB, which is below average, and 5.1 inches of horizontal movement. It's a very straight fastball with a low spin rate. There's not much deception to it.

The Nationals did their homework and they knew they had to hunt fastballs against Waldrep. They whiffed at a bunch of splitters but when Waldrep threw fastballs the Nats were ready.

LHB

Waldrep threw a lot of splitters and had success with it. The Nationals had a 43% whiff vs the splitter. They were hunting fastballs which played right into the splitter but when Waldrep threw a fastball the Nats didn’t miss. They went 1 for 5 but they hit the ball 95+ mph 4 times.

RHB

Waldrep couldn't find his command against RHB. He issued 3 BBs (1 on each pitch type) all on pitches that weren’t close to the zone. Waldrep couldn’t land his slider, he was missing big and it was easy for the Nats to take them.

4-Seam Fastball Breakdown

As I mentioned, Waldrep's fastball isn't deceptive and it's not going to miss bats . I looked at other pitchers with similar fastball profiles and release points and I found that Nick Anderson has a fastball that is almost identical to Waldrep.

Anderson's fastball has been getting crushed this season, which isn't a good sign for Waldrep. They have different repertoires, Anderson throws a curveball and a sinker, but his 4-seam usage has been declining his entire career (48% 2023 -> 25% 2024).

Anderson has allowed a wOBA of .550 vs RHB and .412 vs LHB (avg is .330). Hitters make quality contact with it at a high rate and they don't swing and miss. After one game for Waldrep, although a small sample, the 4-seam fastball had similar results.

Anderson began throwing a sinker last year but it's taken over as his main fastball in 2024. Waldrep is going to have to do something similar and add a sinker or cutter. He's a supination heavy pitcher which means a sinker could be difficult for him to add.

Adding a cutter could be more comfortable for him. His 4-seam already has a lower active spin (87%) and the spin direction is 1:00, it's already somewhat cutter-ish. A true cutter would give him a pitch that can miss more barrels and get him into splitter/slider counts. He just needs a fastball that isn't straight.